SASCOF, April 2024

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF), April 2024 [PDF]

Probability of the most likely category for the 2024 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall over South Asia based on this consensus statement.The consensus-based probability forecast map was prepared based on model forecasts at global as well as national levels synthesized through subjective expert assessment.

Impact based Forecasts for Monsoon 2024

Seasonal outlook for precipitation:

Population exposed to below normal precipitation:

Population exposed to above normal precipitation:

Potential exposure of Agricultural production value to below normal rain

Potential exposure of Agricultural production value to above normal rain

For preparing the consensus forecasts, the forecast products from various centers such as IMD, IITM, JMA, CMA, WMO’s Lead Centre for Long Range Forecasting – Multi-Model Ensemble (WMO LC-LRFMME), National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, Météo France, Met Office UK, European Centre for Medium Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC), Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), APCC, and CPTEC, Brazil etc. were also considered.